Great Depression II

Introduction

Great Depression II is a name commonly applied to a period of economic turmoil centered in the United States, of disputed causes, severity and length. The term has most commonly been used in reference to future economic events, which many people have predicted will worsen.

The term Great Depression 2 was used at least as early as May 6, 2008 (Richard, Great Depression 2 Is At Hand, The Resourceful Bear Blog). Great Depression II was used by the media and blogs with increasing frequency during and after the second weekend of September 2008, which some people regard as the beginning of a second Great Depression. However, many people have consistently insisted that the economic situation would never develop into a full blown depression. Most news sources maintain that, even if it does develop into a depression, it could never be as bad as the original Great Depression.

Using the term loosely, Great Depression II can refer to economic problems that began some time after World War II, particularly during the Reagan administration, and are popularly blamed on deregulation, [ADD]. However, the term is more popularly reserved for George W. Bush's administration, which is characterized by extraordinary corruption and turmoil, with the economy suffering particularly devastating blows in the form of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and a subsequent housing crisis which came to a head on September 15, 2008 ("Black Tuesday").

Understanding this economic event can be very difficult due to the complexity of economics, a host of other increasingly complex related issues, government corruption and secrecy and propaganda. However, authorities and observers are in general agreement that the U.S. economic situation in the latter half of 2008 is worse than any other period in U.S. history save the original Great Depression.

Causes

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How Bad Could it Get?

Due to the complexity of economics, government corruption and secrecy and a number of similarly volatile related issues, it's virtually impossible to predict the course of Great Depression II with any accuracy. Anyone can see that things are getting worse, but no one knows how much worse it will get or how long it will last.

Throughout George W. Bush's administration, the media and many private citizens alike have labeled people who predict an economic catastrophe doomsdayers, in what appears to some to be a propaganda campaign designed, in part, to shield Bush from criticism. Some people point to "firewalls" created in response to the Great Depression that will theoretically prevent a subsequent economic disaster of that magnitude. Others simply profess a faith in the resiliency of the U.S. economy and the strength of the American people. It is also popularly believed that other nations will help prop up the U.S. economy, on which virtually the entire world depends.

In fact, the belief that another global depression equal to or exceeding the Great Depression in severity could simply never happen is propaganda at best, delusional at worst. History has a habit of repeating itself, a fact borne out by "the war to end all wars," which never lived up to its nickname.

Listed below are ten reasons a second great depression could be worse than the original. Collectively, they suggest the possibility of an economic perfect storm.

1. Population

Compare the United States' population figures for 1930, 1940 and 2000:

1930 - 122,775,046
1940 - 131,669,275
2000 - 281,421,906

The population more than doubled between 1940 and 2000. It reached 300 million in 2006 and is still growing. The 2006 population of California alone was 36,457,549, more than a quarter of the national population in 1940.

In other words, the government will have to care for more than twice as many people as it did during the Great Depression.

2. Farmers vs Urban Cowboys

The United States was still a largely agricultural nation in the 1930's. Thus, many people were partially self-sufficient during the Great Depression. [Get statistics; mention Dust Bowl]

A continuing exodus of farmers to cities has helped transform the U.S. into a nation with millions of people crowded into sprawling cities and megalopolises. At the same time, wild game has become more scarce. In the event of a major economic collapse, a higher percentage of people would be dependent on government welfare.

3. Downward Spiral

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4. More Complex Issues

The world has become a far more complex place than it was during the Great Depression. Nuclear weapons, the Internet and globalization didn't even exist then, and people had no knowledge of things like ozone holes and global warming.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks - whether perpetrated by Islamic terrorists or corporate operatives - are a reminder of how vulnerable the economy is to terrorism, technology run amok or government intrigue.

5. Oil

Fossil fuels have become the United States' Achilles heel. As demand for gas and oil increases, the global supply is popularly believed to be decreasing. Oil is certainly becoming more difficult to extract as the more accessible reserves are exploited.

Thus, the United States' economy is dependent on foreign oil suppliers. The top four importers (to the U.S.) are Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Venezuela, each supplying over one million barrels a day. Iraq ranks sixth in importance. Saudi Arabia and Iraq, of course, are located in the troubled Middle East. Many people question whether the U.S. can trust Saudi Arabia, which is an immensely powerful nation - one that exerts a lot of control over the U.S. economy and political system.

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has waged war against foreign corporations that have long exploited his country. As a result, the U.S. is now paying higher prices for Venezuelan crude. Chavez has also used oil as a weapon, threatening to cut off supplies if the U.S. attacks Venezuela.

Mexico is essentially a U.S. puppet state, but it has clearly been influenced by the Latin American socialist revolution; the last presidential election was very close, and many people predict that Mexico's next president will be a leftist, similar to the leaders that have risen throughout South America. Such a leader could well follow Venezuela's lead in making foreign corporations pay a fair price for its petroleum resources.

In the meantime, the U.S. has been antagonizing Iran, another major oil exporter - and a nation that largely controls the Straits of Hormuz, though which tankers carrying Middle Eastern oil pass.

6. War Economy?

World War II is commonly cited as a major factor in helping the U.S. recover from the Great Depression.The demand for war material gave the ecnonomy an enormous boost, paving the way for an unparalleled post-war boom.

Thus, some people have argued that another war could rescue us from a second depression. Conspiracy theorists might even speculate that the corporate interests who gave us a global war against terror want to ruin the economy partly as an excuse to expand their war. But there are several problems with this theory.

Apart from the moral arguments against waging war for economic gain, the United States is already bogged down in two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, those wars are frequently cited as major contributing factors to the United States' economic malaise. To understand why, just keep in mind that the military is now largely privatized. Corrupt corporations are making a killing off of war, with most of the profits funneled into the pockets of top executives.

A third war could be devastating. The military is already strained from its occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. Reinstating the draft would usher in new problems. International anger at the United States could also increase if it got involved in yet another war. In addition, a number of powerful nations are poised to ally with virtually any nation the U.S. decides to attack. Witness the military alliance between Russia and Venezuela.

7. Corruption

Government corruption is frequently cited as a major contributing factor to the Great Depression. [VERIFY] Yet the government has also been credited with establishing programs and institutions that helped the nation recover.

The current U.S. government is widely characterized as corrupt and incompetent, even dysfunctional. Witness the federal response to Hurricane Katrina. If the government can't provide adequate assistance for New Orleans, how can it take care of an entire nation during an economic blowout?

To put it in perspective, natural disasters will continue to occur during times of economic woes. If another hurricane struck New Orleans or another major city during a depression, how might a government that's already grappling with myriad economic problems react?

8. Disaster Capitalism

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9. Dumbed Down Public

The socialist movement was a powerful political force in the late 19th and early 20th century, playing a powerful role in shaping today's economy. The Socialist Party of America became a minor political movement after 1920.

Today, there are just two viable political parties, Republican and Democratic, both of them very corrupt. In fact, the Democratic Party has evolved into an organization closely resembling the Republican Party, inspiring the name Demopublicans.

Though people unhappy with the Demopublicans have jumped ship to join the Libertarian and Green parties, neither party has developed much clout. This is doubtless largely due to the political aptitude of the American public.

21st century U.S. citizens are widely regarded as apathetic and ignorant. The word stupid is commonly applied to them. It is also widely believed that public schools - which have become increasingly corporatized - are now in the business of dumbing down students.

Many people hope that another great depression will snap people out of their apathy, resulting in renewed interest in politics or maybe even a revolution. However, even if people do suddenly begin to care, it will take time for them to educate themselves. At the present time, most people don't even know how to vote, let alone reform the government.

10. Blowback

The Great Depression originated in the U.S., but it plunged the entire world into a depression. Thus, one might expect a lot of anger directed at the U.S., though I haven't researched that.

At any rate, the world's attention was soon focused on another disaster: World War II. The United States emerged from tht conflict a hero and generally had the respect of other nations.

Today, it's a different story. The war in Vietnam inspired an international backlash, fueled by subsequent skirmishes and socio-political intrigue. The United States' image took a sharp plunge after George W. Bush was elected president.

During Bush's two terms in office, other nations began arming themselves in preparation for a military conflict with the U.S. Nations also began freeing themselves from dependence on the U.S. Virtually every nation in South America except Colombia (a U.S. puppet) has to some degree been swept up in a socialist revolution, largely led by Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez.

In the event of a second great depression, it would be foolish to depend on international good will as a crutch. In fact, some nations would likely seize the opportunity to strike further blows against the U.S., with an emphasis on dumping the U.S. dollar as the official currency.

Predictions

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Conspiracy Theories

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Solutions

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Survival Tips

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References