Sports Betting Parlay

A parlay is a combined bet on two, three, four or more games, which requires correct selections on all of this picks in order to win. If one selection is incorrect, then the whole wager is lost.

What Is A Parlay

A parlay is a combined bet on two, three, four or more games, which requires correct selections on all of this picks in order to win. If one selection is incorrect, then the whole wager is lost.

If one selection results in a tie, is postponed, incomplete, canceled, or rescheduled for another date, the parlay wager is reduced to the next lowest level. That means a three team parlay with a tie becomes a two team parlay, or a two team parlay with a tie becomes a straight bet. (Some bookmakers consider ties to be losing bets instead of a push, so rules must be checked.)


Why Make A Parlay Wager?

The basic reason one would make a parlay wager is obvious, the payout is higher than a straight bet, and parlays offer the potential for a big payoff from a small wager.

Typical payoffs for winning parlays are as follows:
# of games    Payout
2            13.5 to 5   
3            6 to 1   
4            10 to 1   
5            20 to 1   
6            40 to 1
7            80 to 1
8            150 to 1

Under this payoff chart if a sporting event forecaster correctly called three games, but did so as three individual straight wagers of $10 each, the forecaster would generate $27 in earnings on $30. However, if the same forecaster had placed a single $10 wager on the three games as  parlay, the forecaster would generate $60 in earnings. 

Are Parlays Worth It?

Based strictly on odds most statisticians and wagering analyst would probably say no, because the odds of the payoff are less than the odds of forecasting a winning parlay selection. For example, the odds of winning a three-team parlay when making point spread wagers are 7-1, while the payoff one is likely to find in any sportsbook is only 6-1 or worse. The disparity gets worse as you bet more teams. The true odds of hitting a 10-team point parlay are 1,023-1, while the payoff is generally around 700-1, so the parlay player is always at a statistical disadvantage.


A Year of Parlays

This knol is going to attempt to demonstrate and achieve profitability through a pure parlay wagering strategy. The method used will include using quantitative and qualitative analysis in the selection process, and limiting the amount wagered to $40US per week. The one year study begins on September 4, the start of the National Football League (NFL) regular season - the unofficial start of the sports wagering fiscal year.


Results as of 12/19/08

Amount Wagered: $240   Amount Won: $0   Profit(Loss): ($60)

Straight Record 39-34 (53%)

Date        Parlay Type    Amount        Teams Selected                                                                            Winnings
12/20       3 Team           $10US         WFU-Navy Under 44 / Mem/SFL Under 55 / BYU-AZ Over 59.5
12/06       4 Team           $10US         AL +10 / Army-Navy Over 43 / OU -17 / OU-MO Over 78.5              $0
11/30       5 Team           $10US         BAL-CIN Over 36 / WAS +4 / SF +7 / CAR +3 / NE -1.5                   $0
11/29       3 Team           $10US         OK -7.5 / Ore-Ore State Under 58.5 / USC-ND Over 48                   $0
11/22       3 Team           $10US         BYU +7 / BYU-UT Over 54 / WVA -7                                                 $0
11/16       3 Team           $10US         MIA-OAK Over 38.5 / SF-STL Over 43.5 / SEA +3                            $0
11/15       3 Team           $10US         ND-Navy Under 52 / UNC -3 / UT -13.5                                             $0
11/08       3 Team           $10US         Rice -9.5 / Army-Rice Under 54.5 / PSU -8                                       $0
10/26       3 Team           $10US         ATL +9 / NE -9 / CIN-HOU Over 45                                                   $0
10/25       3 Team           $10US         UT -11.5 / OK -18.5 / BC-UNC Over 41.5                                          $0
10/19       3 Team           $10US         IND -2 / MIA-BAL Over 36 / CAR -3                                                   $0
10/18       3 Team           $20US         WSU +42.5 / Texas -4 / Michigan +24.5                                            $0
10/12       3 Team           $10US         IND -4 / CAR-TB Over 36.5 / SEA-GB Under 44.5                            $0
10/11       3 Team           $10US         COL-KAN Under 54 / BYU-NM Under 47.5 / UT-WY Over 43           $60
10/05       3 Team           $10US         IND-HOU Under 48.5 / WAS-PHI Under 42 / CIN-DAL Over 45.5      $0
10/04       3 Team           $10US         OSU -1 / USC -16 / Rice-Tulsa Under 80                                           $0
09/28       3 Team           $10US         WAS +10.5 / CHI-PHI Under 39.5 / AZ / MN-TN Under 36                $0
09/27       3 Team           $10US         PSU -15.5 / PSU-ILL Over 54.5 / PUR +1.5                                       $0
09/21       3 Team           $10US         CAR +3 / PHI -3.5 / DAL-GB Under 51.5                                            $0
09/20       3 Team           $10US         GA Tech -7.5 / RUT -5.5 / MICH State -8.5                                         $0
09/14       4 Team           $10US          IND -1.5 / WAS +1 / NYG-STL Over 42 / BUF-JAX Under 37            $100
09/13       3 Team           $10US          GA -7.5 / Mich -2 / Mich-ND Under 37                                                $0
09/07       3 Team           $10US          CIN-BAL Under 37.5 / MIA-NYJ Over 36 SEA-BUF Over 38.5          $0
09/06       3 Team           $10US          FL-MIA Under 51 / WVa -7.5 / ASU -14                                              $0                    





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