National Security Threats

Opening Arguments: Nuclear Terrorism Is Threat #1

Let’s define “security threats” as outside agents that could directly harm us or our families, here in America, or forces that could greatly compromise our collective way of life. 

There are two principal direct security threats Americans face today: a terrorist attack, especially with a nuclear device, and an outbreak of deadly contagious disease.  Already, terrorists have killed thousand of us, and epidemics, hundreds of thousands more. These agents could act again at any moment.  The next Administration must remain exquisitely focused on these present dangers.    

Potentially also devastating is the creeping crisis of climate change.  Our dependence on foreign oil empowers some highly problematic regimes today, and feeds a cycle of climatic shift that could significantly compromise our national security tomorrow. 

Al Qaeda and its network of affiliates, as well as local extremist groups, continue to view killing Americans as their highest calling. While these groups are under pressure from intelligence agencies, police and military forces, the specter of an extremist group acquiring a nuclear weapon is what haunts security officials most. Indeed, 10 years ago, Osama bin Laden proclaimed it a “religious duty” for Muslims to acquire nuclear weapons, and a nuclear terrorist attack on a large city could kill hundreds of thousands at once.  Keeping nuclear materials out of the hands of terrorists is the most urgent, immediate goal of US foreign policy.  

Epidemics and Climate Change Can Wreak Havoc

We have not always thought of disease as a national security threat, but the flu pandemic in 1918 left some 670,000 Americans dead (the percentage equivalent of 2 million today). With people crossing borders in much greater numbers, and more living in crowded cities, we are even more vulnerable today.  The SARS virus spread to six countries in a matter of hours.  Many experts think another flu pandemic is unavoidable. 

Beyond these most immediate threats is climate change.  If the world does not act comprehensively to address climate change, Americans will experience more extreme weather events, exotic diseases, adverse conditions for farming, water shortages and other disruptions.  Around the world, global warming will create a less stable world by greatly exacerbating bitter disputes over water, ethnic tensions, food shortages, and poverty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts as many as 150 million climate refugees by 2050.  Transforming America to a low-carbon economy, beginning with a “green recovery” program, can stem greenhouse gas emissions, create jobs, and stop the flow of billions of dollars to problematic oil-exporting regimes such as Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venzuela.  It can make us the global leader we need to become to address climate change. 

Potential Rivals and New Rules of Engagement

The list of security threats to America does not end there. Hostile countries such as North Korea and Iran, cyber-attacks, failed states, poverty that empowers extremists and extinguishes hope can likewise harm our interests.  We must also remain vigilant about threats to our worldwide network of allies.   

Finally, we cannot discount the possibility, that decades from now, a hostile great power will emerge and actively oppose US interests.  While we enjoy largely stable relationships with the major powers of today, and none seeks to destroy the international system, things could change.   A number of factors make great power war unlikely, however, including that: we are economically interdependent to a very large degree, as the current financial meltdown is illustrating each day; there is no longer a head to head competition over ideology; we all have nuclear weapons, which serve as a deterrent; and major powers are dependent on each other for security cooperation on terrorism, disease, crime and global warming.  Americans also have giant oceans to protect us.  The power projection capabilities of today’s powers is quite limited and will remain so for the foreseeable future. 

In the meantime, we need to cooperate with these powers in order to fight the dire threats we do face today.  India has deep knowledge of Islamic extremists and European police are regularly thwarting terrorist plots directed at us.  Russia is the largest source of loose nuclear material that could fall into terrorist hands and has worked with the US to secure it.  China’s efforts at containing a future flu outbreak are vital and while America needs to lead on climate change, if China doesn’t follow, we wont be able to avoid its the worst effects.  China and Russia’s participation is also essential to curbing North Korea and Iran’s nuclear programs.  Events this week show that all the world’s large and emerging economies must act together to stem the effects of the worldwide financial crisis. 

Not Making Us Safer

How is the United States doing on countering the most dire threats of terrorism, nuclear proliferation, disease and climate change?  Not so well. 70% of experts recently surveyed said we were not winning the “war on terror.”  American soldiers remain heavily deployed in Iraq, while the Taliban and Al Qaeda gain strength in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  A recent National Intelligence Estimate report warns that Afghanistan is in a “downward spiral.” Meanwhile, the Bush administration record on non-proliferation has been dismal—North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon, Iran acquired thousands of centrifuges and the international non-proliferation regime is in tatters. We remain woefully unprepared for a major epidemic, and the stubbornness to address climate change at the national level has been catastrophically short-sighted. 

Fortunately, there are a lot of good ideas out there on how to do better.  Let us hope the next president puts those ideas into practice.

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