References to outcomes theory

Origin of outcomes theory

Outcomes theory has been developed by Paul Duignan, PhD, a Senior Research Fellow at Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand and a strategist with Parker Duignan Consulting. The origins of outcomes theory lie in his work in four areas. The first has been an attempt to develop a standard approach to planning program evaluations which is comprehensive enough to evaluate complex multi-strand programs. The second has been involvement in implementing a public sector 'managing for outcomes' approach at a national level which has included the issue of how best to 'contract for outcomes'. The third has been a focus on how to foster evidence-based practice in various sectors. The fourth has been involvement in consulting on strategic planning and organizational development for a number of  organizations. In the past, the common concepts underlying how to best work in these four areas have not been identified and summarized into a common theory that reaches across all of them. Activity in these four areas has traditionally being underpinned by theory (where there is any theory) drawn from a range of disciplines, including: organizational studies, operations research, economics, policy studies, management studies, strategic studies and Human Resource (HR) studies. Outcomes theory is an attempt to provide a general conceptual framework for thinking about, and working with, outcomes, monitoring, evaluation, performance management, contracting and evidence-base practice systems of any type. These types of systems are known within outcomes theory as outcomes systems.  

References to outcomes evaluation

Outcomes theory is at an early stage of its development as a theoretical area. The initial priority has been: to develop the theory; to enhance it by applying it to a variety of different settings; to develop an applied system based on the principles of outcomes theory; to develop software which could enable sufficiently comprehensive outcomes models to be worked with; to make the theory available through this Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base on the internet; and to present the work at national and international conferences. Now that the first iteration of this  Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base is nearing completion, academic journal articles summarizing the approach are being prepared. 

Conference Presentations on Outcomes Theory

Aspects of outcomes theory have been presented at a number of national and international conferences. These presentations are listed below. This list does not include many workshop presentations to groups applying aspects of outcomes theory to many different sectors (including: welfare, defense, housing, culture and heritage, environment, conservation, sustainability, building regulation, indigenous development, heart health promotion, cancer prevention, mental health, community development, youth offending, food safety, local government reform etc.)

What references to use

For general purposes use a reference to the appropriate place in this Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base. For other purposes some of the conference presentations below can be cited.

For a general reference to outcomes theory use reference [1] for a reference to the use of outcomes models within policy development use [2] and for a reference to the use of a standardized visual approach to using a visual evaluation plan (the Easy Outcomes approach) use [3]. These references can be supplemented by a reference to the appropriate part in this Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base. 

Averill, K. & P. Duignan (2008). Building a 'world-centric' rather than 'program-centric' logic model for a national problem gambling strategy: Using logic modelling software. American Evaluation Association Conference, Denver 5-8 November 2008. 

[2] Duignan, P. (2008). What Added Value can Evaluators Bring to Governance, Development and Progress Through Policy-Making? The Role of Large Visualized Outcomes Models in Policy Making. 8th European Evaluation Society Conference, Lisbon, October 2008. [Full text of paper].

[3] Duignan, P. (2008). Encouraging Better Evaluation Design and Use Through a Standardized Approach to Evaluation Planning and Implementation - Easy Outcomes. 8th European Evaluation Society Conference, Lisbon, October 2008. [Full text of paper].

Duignan, P. (2008). Optimizing value for stakeholders: Helping stakeholders make evaluation design decisions through the Easy Outcomes approach to visual evaluation planning. Australiasian Evaluation Society Conference 2008, Perth, 10 September 2008.

Duignan, P. (2008). Exploring the Possibilities Offered by Comprehensive Outcomes Models - Mapping Multiple Projects. ANZEA Conference , Rotorua, 15 July 2008.

Averill, K. & P. Duignan (2008). Using Logic Modeling Software for a National (Problem Gambling) Strategy. ANZEA Conference 2008 , Rotorua, 14 July 2008.

Duignan, P. Richards, R. & M. Silver (2008). Practical Solutions for Making the Link Between Natural Resource Management (NRM) Evidence and Practice. Wellington, 190 July 2008.

Duignan, P. (2007). Visualising Outcomes in Social Policy: Constructing Quality Outcome Sets for Maximising Impact. Social Policy, Research & Evaluation Conference. Wellington. 5 April 2007.

Duignan, P. (2006). Outcomes and Indicator Phobia: Causes and Treatment. Victoria University School of Government invited Seminar. Wellington. 27 October 2006.

Duignan, P. (2006). Getting evidence into policy: The needs of policy makers and Governments for new approaches to evidence synthesis. Cochrane Qualitative Research Methods Group Regional Symposium. Adelaide. 10-11 July 2006.

Duignan, P. (2004). Outline of the Strategic Evaluation Approach. Presentation to the Annual Conference of the American Evaluation Association, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. 3-6 November 2004.

[1] Duignan, P. (2004). Outcomes Theory: Using it to Improve Programme/Organisation/Sector Outcome Sets. Professional Development Workshop for the Annual Conference of the American Evaluation Association, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. 3 November 2004. 

Duignan, P. (2004). Strategic Evaluation Manifesto. Presentation to 6th European Evaluation Society Biennial Conference: Governance, Democracy and Evaluation. Berlin, Germany. 30 September – 2 October 2004.

Duignan, P. (2004). Outcomes Theory: Improving Your Sector/Programme/Organisation Outcome Sets. Pre-Conference Professional Development Workshop at 6th European Evaluation Society Biennial Conference: Governance, Democracy and Evaluation. Berlin, Germany. 30 September 2004.

Duignan, P. (2004). Developing a Performance Measurement Framework to Appraise Policy Development. Presentation to the 2nd Annual Developing Outcomes Orientated Welfare and Social Policy Conference, Wellington, 11-12 May 2004.

Duignan, P. (2004). Evaluating the Effectiveness of Inter-Sectoral Initiatives. Presentation to the 2nd Annual Developing Outcomes Orientated Welfare and Social Policy Conference, Wellington, 11-12 May 2004.

Duignan, P. (2004). Outcomes Theory: Clarifying What’s Realistic in Managing for Outcomes. Presentation to the 2nd Annual Developing, Managing and Measuring Outcomes-Based Policy in the Public Sector, Wellington, 31 March – 1 April 2004. 

Duignan, P. (2004). Achieving an Outcomes-Based Organisational Strategy in Health. Presentation to the 5th Healthcare Management Conference, Auckland, 17-18 March 2004.

Duignan, P. (2004). Measuring and Managing Health Outcomes: Understanding the Influences Driving Outcomes and Linking Agency Activities to Consequences. Presentation to the 3rd Annual Outcomes in Health Conference, Auckland, 16-17 March 2004.

Duignan, P. (2003). Renewed Outcomes Focus: What it Means for Evaluators. Presentation to the Australasian Evaluation Society Conference, Auckland, 14-18 September 2003.

Duignan, P. (2003). Evaluating Inter-Sectoral Outcomes and Targets to Assess Progress in the Achievement of Social Goals. Presentation to the Developing Outcomes Orientated Welfare and Social Policy Conference, Wellington, 29-30 July 2003.

Duignan, P. (2003). So We All Have Our Statements of Intent (SOIs) – What Next? Presentation to the Implementing and Evaluating Outcomes-Based Government Policy Conference, Wellington, 26-27 May 2003.

Duignan, P. (2003). Using Data for Performance Management: Principles for Building Sector Performance Management Systems. Presentation to the Managing Health Information: A Major Theme for Health Reform Conference, Sydney, 7-8 May 2003.

Duignan, P, Searle, P. & E. Bridge (2003). The Draft Outcomes Evaluation and Performance Measurement Framework: Measuring Government Agency Activity, Policies and Programmes for Maori. Presentation to the Connecting Policy Research and Practice Conference, Wellington, 29-30 April 2003.

Duignan, P. (2003). Implementing an Outcomes-Based Health Strategy and Evaluation Framework Within Your Organisation, 2nd Annual Measuring, Monitoring and Managing Outcomes in Health Conference, 17-18 March 2003.

Duignan, P. (2002). Importance of Policy Evaluation and its Influence on Achieving Agency Outcomes. Presentation to Managing and Measuring Outcomes Based Policy in the Public Sector Conference, Wellington, 30 September-1 October 2002.

Duignan, P. (2002). Being Strategic About Strategic Planning in the Public Sector. Presentation to the Strategic Planning in the Public Sector Conference, Wellington, 23-24 July 2002.

Duignan, P. (2001). Upping the Evaluation Debate: What We Need to Do Next. Presentation to the Measuring Public Sector Performance Conference, Wellington, 16-17 October 2001.

Duignan, P. (2000). Improving the Cost Effectiveness and Capacity for Evaluation in the Public Sector. Presentation to the Improving Public Sector Performance Through Quality Evaluation Conference, Wellington, 25-26 May 2000.

Duignan, P. (1999). Developing a culture of strategic evaluation in the public sector. Improving Public Sector Policy Through Quality Evaluation Conference. Wellington, New Zealand , 25-28 May 1999.

Some reports using approaches based on outcomes theory

Duignan, P. & Bjorksten, N. (2005). Strategy Design in Evaluating IMF Surveillance Activity. Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund. Washington, D.C. http://www.imf.org/External/NP/ieo/2005/bckgn/BP051.pdf 

Duignan, P. (2005). Performance Based Research Fund (PBRF) Intervention Logic, Evaluation and Monitoring Framework Discussion Paper. For Tertiary Education Commission, Wellington. 
http://www.tec.govt.nz/upload/downloads/PBRF-intervention-logic-document.pdf 

Duignan, P. (2005). An Evaluation Strategy for the New Building Regulatory Regime. For Department of Building and Housing, Wellington. http://parkerduignan.com/documents/130pdf.PDF